Chris Barlow, head of manufacturing at MHA, comments:

“The latest Manufacturing PMI shows little movement, reflecting a sector that is cautiously optimistic but still weighed down by uncertainty. Although export demand has picked up, confidence remains fragile. Events over the weekend will cause further uncertainty for the sector, particularly around disruption to supply chains and a potential surge in oil prices.

Looking forward the renewed disruption caused by the ongoing confusion over tariff agreements has also reintroduced uncertainty at an already challenging time, particularly for manufacturers with goods already en route to the US. After months of dealing with the fallout from the UK Budget in November, the sector could do without a further threat from this new level of instability.

Last month’s PMI reached an 18‑month high and wider UK economic indicators have begun to look more positive, suggesting we may be turning a corner. But the picture remains uneven, larger manufacturers are seeing improvements far quicker than SMEs, and any recovery will take time to filter through the system. The tariff situation now raises the broader question: where does the economy go from here?

Looking ahead to the Spring Statement tomorrow, the sector needs a clear signal of support. This should include meaningful momentum behind the long‑awaited and somewhat unicorn-like Industrial Strategy, and targeted incentives to help manufacturers invest in technology, AI and ESG. A decisive push now would give businesses the confidence they need to plan, invest and grow.”